This week on The Money Puzzle Podcast Chris Vaughn & Eric Douglas discuss the current market coming into august and what to expect in the future. We are seeing our economy start to recover but there is still strategies that you and use to use the market to your advantage in your financial plan.
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Speaker 1 [00:00:01] All right. Welcome back to the Money Puzzle here at Family Wealth Planning Partners. I’m Chris Vaughn, along with Eric Douglas. Once again. Right now, it’s beginning of August 20, 22. The last time we did a market update was right after the end of Q2, and it was doom and gloom.
Speaker 2 [00:00:18] About as bad as it could be. Yeah, it.
Speaker 1 [00:00:20] Was not a not a fun conversation. In fact, I think we converted that conversation into a recording of the Bourbon podcast because you just.
Speaker 2 [00:00:28] Yeah, we earned the bourbon. Yeah. After the first half of the year for sure.
Speaker 1 [00:00:32] So we were, we were talking about this and we said, you know what? July changed some things a little bit. So we thought maybe it would be a good time to get back with everybody and say, okay, let let us kind of talk you through what’s going on in the markets right now. Eric, you want to go ahead, get started?
Speaker 2 [00:00:47] Yeah, well, I mean, I think what’s been interesting about July is I think that the whole theme of this show is really what sparked this conversation anyway, internally was making rash decisions. Yeah, right. And we always talk about wanting to avoid making rash decisions or emotional decisions in times of volatility. And as we sit here, now that we’re one month through the third quarter, you know, we’re through July, right? One month after things had pretty much been at their low point. I don’t want to say the bottom of the market, but it’s looking somewhat it’s looking similar to what hopefully was the four the kind of the end of the second quarter. But, you know, the S&P 500 in the month of July was up over 9%. Yeah. And so we talk about the most emotional decisions usually occur at highs or lows in the market. And what we you know, we pressed so many of our clients and actually most of our clients were very have been excellent this year. But you never want to make emotional decisions when you’re at a high point or a low point, everything, you always want to make logical decisions. And if you had made a decision at the low point at the end of the second quarter or really through the first half of the year, you would have missed the upside capture that July brought. We’ve had a really good month in the markets over the last month.
Speaker 1 [00:02:02] So let me first of all, I want to clarify something. When you say the market was up nine over 9% in July.
Speaker 2 [00:02:08] That’s just one and that was one.
Speaker 1 [00:02:09] And that’s not an annualized rate. That’s an actual 9% uptick.
Speaker 2 [00:02:14] That’s the return one. That’s the return of the S&P five.
Speaker 1 [00:02:17] S&P five.
Speaker 2 [00:02:18] Which is one index. But the NASDAQ is actually up more than that. I don’t have the number off the top of my head. I want to say that number was up over 12, 13%. Of course, the Nasdaq was down.
Speaker 1 [00:02:28] It was down a lot.
Speaker 2 [00:02:29] More, down a lot more. So it has a lot more room to come up in. The Nasdaq is typically more growth in tech heavy. So you’re going to it does.
Speaker 1 [00:02:37] Have more volatile so.
Speaker 2 [00:02:37] You’re going to see more of those swings. And the swings are really bad on the downside, but the really fun on the upside, they’ve been really fun the last few years, obviously. But where we sit right now is through the month of July, we had we had a good month. Yeah, knock on wood. I don’t want to jinx it. I don’t want to ruin it for the rest of the year. But we we were talking about we did that podcast earlier this year. This was this is even before the end of Q2 where we were talking about, okay, numbers in a recession and what the economy looks like. And we talked about how poorly the market performs through really the beginning of a recession. And then the second half, you know, we were talking about like it was down like over 15%, right?
Speaker 1 [00:03:17] It was it was bad. At the beginning of July, we recorded that. I was going to mention that. And we said that, you know, the first six months of this year was the was the worst first six months of a calendar.
Speaker 2 [00:03:28] Year.
Speaker 1 [00:03:29] Since 1940, which is just an amazing statistic when you think about it. But then you pulled some stats that showed and I if I’m getting this wrong, correct me. It was like the the worst 10/1 month for six months. Yeah, man, that’s hard to say. The worst 10/1 six months in the last I think was a hundred years. And in every single one of those, the second half of the year was epically good and none of them completely got us all the way back. Right. But but most of it.
Speaker 2 [00:03:59] Demonstrably better than the first half of the year. I think there was only one instance where it it was still positive, but it wasn’t like it was negligible. How much of an effect. It was basically flat, but for the most part, you saw recovery through the second half of the year when you had epically bad first halves of the year. We had an epically bad first half of the year. Absolutely. And I’m not saying by any means and we’ll get into, you know, some other things to look at right now through the SEC, through the rest of the year, because there’s definitely still issues and concerns that I have. I still don’t fully trust this market in this economy. That’s another story and we’ll talk about that shortly. But there are some reasons to be somewhat positive about what’s happening right now. And you have to find good I mean, everyone wants to focus on the bad. That’s where all the headlines are. But there is good happening, right?
Speaker 1 [00:04:46] We’ve done podcasts about that, too.
Speaker 2 [00:04:48] Exactly. Yeah. About the negative headlines. Yeah, absolutely. There’s always negative headlines. If it bleeds, it leads. It’s no different in the financial news media than it is on your local news. You know, we need to look at some of the good. Stats though, some of the good things and you’ve got some inflation numbers. We’ll talk about that. But I was just digesting some data this morning. If you look at shipping rates lately.
Speaker 1 [00:05:09] No, I have not.
Speaker 2 [00:05:11] So supply chain, that’s been a huge issue over the last year, even before really we started getting into record high inflation. It’s always been an issue through this COVID, you know, through the through the last couple of years. Shipping rates are way, way down right now. So if you’re shipping goods overseas, it’s a lot cheaper right now to ship goods than it was six months ago than it was a year ago. We’re back down to basically what the levels were pre-pandemic, which is fantastic news for supply chain issues, which.
Speaker 1 [00:05:36] Is interesting in the wake of the inflation in energy costs, specifically fuel. Yep.
Speaker 2 [00:05:42] While fuel jumped way up, that’s come back down. So if you go to your gas prices over the last month, we talked about the bump in the stock market. Well, guess what? That coincided with this. It’s coincided with a drop in in energy, namely gasoline, of course. So we’re getting some well-needed, much needed relief at the gas pump over the last 30 days.
Speaker 1 [00:06:02] Once again, good.
Speaker 2 [00:06:03] Knock on wood, I’m a keep I’m going to do a lot of knocking on wood today, but because I don’t want to jinx any of this. Right. But but we’ve we’ve we’re paying less at the gas pump. So when energy prices start coming down, you’re seeing shipping rates coming down. That’s a really good combination for making sure that the supply chain is back up and running. And inventory issues aren’t a concern for most retailers. Retail sales are. I mean, GDP growth is negative in the first two quarters. And we talked about how that’s obviously one of the biggest indicators of a recession does not automatically mean we’re in a recession. We did an episode we did.
Speaker 1 [00:06:34] A podcast on that, too. Yeah.
Speaker 2 [00:06:36] So commonly, you know, we’re.
Speaker 1 [00:06:39] The most common definition of a recession. We are there and that is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. That’s the most widely accepted definition. But as you pointed out, there is no exact definition. It’s it’s just not there.
Speaker 2 [00:06:55] And when you look at some of the other indicators that they use to determine what a recession or when we are actually in a recession, those other indicators are still positive. That might change over the next year. So, you know, once.
Speaker 1 [00:07:08] Again and something I want to point out that the whole word recession, that one’s been flying around for, what, six, nine months now and it’s doom and gloom and it’s oh, my gosh, the world is coming to an end. It’s Chicken Little with the sky falling. Recession in of itself is not necessarily a bad thing to me. It means, okay, we finally got that one off the table. Now we can get back to work and put this thing back together.
Speaker 2 [00:07:31] Now we can recover.
Speaker 1 [00:07:32] Exactly. Now we can recover instead of constantly going, Oh, we don’t want to make this one little mistake that’ll trigger a recession. Now we’re there. Now let’s get back to work. Yeah, let’s fix.
Speaker 2 [00:07:42] And we always look and we talked about this this is a said I saw recently but you talk about, you know, 60, 68% of the time when a recession is announced, we’re already recovering from the you’re.
Speaker 1 [00:07:53] Already out of it by the time.
Speaker 2 [00:07:54] Those is, which basically means the stock market is the number one indicator or a leading indicator of what the economy is going to you know, what’s going to happen with the economy? Well, we had a really good month in the month of July. We’re seeing some other leading indicators. So the stock market’s the ultimate leading indicator. But, you know, we’re seeing other leading indicators, like I said, some of the ones I just mentioned. But inflation is obviously the big one. And you’ve got a whole I’ve got some front of you with some stats.
Speaker 1 [00:08:20] Great inflation numbers. Yeah. Okay. So when we were talking about inflation, we’re talking about how bad it was. The last number that we had was the June number that came out. So it’s about a month old now. Yeah, that was 9.1% inflation since June of last year over year. Doom and gloom. Okay. But, you know, I pulled some stats that go all the way back to 1961. So year by year, decade by decade, I’ve even got 20, 30 and 40 year periods here as they apply to see what inflation is typically like. So for example, when you think back to the 1970s, that’s the one that I’ve heard a lot on the news recently. And that’s, you know, this is the worst since the seventies. Okay, 1973, 7.4%, 1974, 11.9%. Remember, you had an energy crisis back then, too. All right. That’s the first time, if I remember correctly, when people were going into gas lines. Oh, yeah. Just to get gas. I was three. I don’t remember it that well. Like, at all.
Speaker 2 [00:09:22] I was nonexistent. Yeah.
Speaker 1 [00:09:24] But the year after that, 75, 7.9, then 5.5, then 6.6, 8.3. So you’re getting back into those numbers that right now feel brutal. But check this one out. In 1979, 12.2, I mean, compared to where we are now, 12.2 sounds like a true nightmare. Oh, by the way, the next year, 12.6 in 1980, 1981, 11.0. So you’ve got three, three years there in a row that are considerably worse. If you think about it to me, 12%. That’s a. A full third worse than 9%. Right. That’s that is that’s a true, you know, nightmare scenario. But why were those there? Okay. In my opinion, and I know Eric and I totally agree on this one, that was just bad economic policy. A lot of things happened that were not necessarily somebody’s fault. Bad economic policy. And it causes that. So what did you do immediately after that? Right. Go into the 1980s. 1982 5%. 83 2.94.3. 3.11.8 in 1986. What did you have going on during that time? Good fiscal economic policy. So you can’t separate what’s going on now from the politics. We want to, but you can’t. But you look at this and it goes on. You know, you made a great point when we were talking about this earlier. Those numbers are all still higher than what we feel like is normal. So let’s look at just like the last ten years, right? Since 22,009, -1.3, you actually had deflation that year. That’s the only year in the last 60.
Speaker 2 [00:11:06] And why and why did we have that in 2000? Nine. Yeah. 0809 We had the Great Recession.
Speaker 1 [00:11:12] Exactly. So, so. 2010 I’m just going to go in order starting in 2010, 1.13.9, a little bit higher that year, 2.01.21.7. 2015 was zero. It was flat 1.5, 2.2, 2.5. And the numbers I’ve got end in 2018. So the point here is that we have become used to what our I would, I would argue artificially low over inflation numbers.
Speaker 2 [00:11:38] I would say ridiculous, ridiculously low.
Speaker 1 [00:11:40] That’s a good.
Speaker 2 [00:11:40] One. Well below average if the average rate of inflation. Right. And this is including those recent the last ten years, the average rate of inflation is over 3%.
Speaker 1 [00:11:50] If you look at it over the last 40 years, time ending in 2010. The last 40 years. So that’s my lifetime. The average inflation per year over that period is 4.4%. Yeah. So that’s why I think it’s artificially, ridiculously is a good word, low inflation. And we get used to that and we start budgeting for that. And that’s not when the inflation does catch up, which it has done. That’s, that’s when there’s some serious pain and that goes back into the market issues.
Speaker 2 [00:12:24] Right. Well, life is all about expectations. So if if we set a new standard of expectation over the last decade or I say the last decade, it’s more than that. Since 2009, if we set an expectation that we’re not ever going to have inflation higher than 2%, you know, when you start getting into, you know, eight, 9%, obviously it’s going to feel like a shock. A couple of obvious things to consider. And we’ve talked about this before. We were due.
Speaker 1 [00:12:51] Yes, we were.
Speaker 2 [00:12:52] We needed some inflation. We were due for inflation.
Speaker 1 [00:12:55] That’s a horrible thing to say. But it’s true.
Speaker 2 [00:12:56] You hate to say it, but we talk about it with recession. Sometimes you need a recession to, you know, reset. You need to reset. You need to separate the wheat from the chaff. We’re doing the same thing here with inflation to some degree. It’s it’s a it’s a natural part of the economic cycle. What’s not natural is inflation rates that we’ve had over the last decade or the last 12 years. Really. So so we needed some inflation. We’re just getting it all at once. That’s not I’m not saying that’s healthy either. Right. You know, in a lot of the recession I’m sorry, a lot of the inflation that we’re getting now. Once again, going back to your point, in the late seventies, it’s bad economic policy, you know, that you try not to get too political. Unfortunately, there’s no.
Speaker 1 [00:13:35] Way around.
Speaker 2 [00:13:35] It. Politics is entwined in literally every aspect of our lives now at this point, most especially with the market, because when you know this, you see it all the time. The president goes on TV to speak and the market goes up or down based on what they said, the Federal Reserve chairman goes on TV to speak. It goes up there.
Speaker 1 [00:13:50] There have been numerous times if you were to come hang out in our office, in my office, I’ve got a TV and I keep, you know, the business news running. And Chairman Powell, I’ll be on talking about whatever they’re going to do with the interest rates. And the longer he talks, we’ll see the tickers in the bottom. Eric will come in to watch it in my office and we’re yelling at the TV, shut up, shut up. Because the longer he talks, the worse it gets. Politics are involved in everything. There’s just no way around it. And in this particular case, with both the markets and with the inflation rates, you had a catalyst. We were overdue, but you had a catalyst in COVID and all the lockdowns and everything. And there are repercussions to those decisions that were made. And we’re paying for that now. We’re paying for that money supply issues, which is why we’ve got such high inflation. Although I think you and I agree, we probably have peaked out on the inflation rate. Now, that doesn’t mean it’s going to suddenly drop down to three tomorrow. That’s not going to happen.
Speaker 2 [00:14:46] We’re even and out a little bit and we’re seeing that once again. So some of the indicators that I just mentioned before, so you’re talking about, you know, shipping rates coming down, energy prices coming down, other commodity prices have fallen through the. For, I mean, like aluminum, copper, iron and things like that. Right. It’s not just it’s not just energy. That’s the one everyone focuses on. But we use a lot of different things to make a lot of different products out there. So all those other different commodity prices have come down really over the last month. So that’s another leading indicator. Yeah. So there are signs out there that suggest we’re also seeing record high inventories. Retail spending has gone down, we’ve had negative GDP growth. So people have slowed down their spending, which.
Speaker 1 [00:15:30] Means the inventories get.
Speaker 2 [00:15:31] Stocked. So you’re getting higher inventories. Okay. Well, what happens when companies have higher inventories? Well, they need to get rid of that inventory.
Speaker 1 [00:15:39] They run sales.
Speaker 2 [00:15:40] How do you get exactly right. How do you get rid of that inventory? The easiest way to get rid of that inventory is to lower prices. You have an excess amount of supply. The only way to increase demand is to lower the cost of that supply. It’s all basic economics. It’s amazing how much of it all comes back to just basic supply and demand. This know everything comes back to that same economics.
Speaker 1 [00:16:01] One, two, one. Exactly first day in that class, this is what you learn.
Speaker 2 [00:16:04] You try not to make it any more complicated than that, but that’s where we are now. And you and I have talked about this and obviously with our other partners as well, we still don’t really trust.
Speaker 1 [00:16:16] Yeah, I’m not totally.
Speaker 2 [00:16:18] I’m not I’m not ready to say we’re in a recovery right now.
Speaker 1 [00:16:21] It feels like it. But I’m with.
Speaker 2 [00:16:22] You. It’s been it’s been a good month. I’m going to take what the month has given us and we’ll be happy about it. I’m still not we’re still not totally comfortable for a few different reasons. You know, I think one of the biggest reasons is the Fed is still out there raising rates. Yeah, they’ve already announced another rate hike for August and I think September as well. So we’ve got at least two more coming. So that.
Speaker 1 [00:16:44] Plan anyway.
Speaker 2 [00:16:45] That’s the plan. Now if that plan changes at all, we could see some serious volatility one way or the other. If they decide to raise rates even more than that, that’s not going to be good. If they raise rates less than that, that’s going to be a really healthy sign because the reason they’re raising rates so aggressively is to keep inflation in checks.
Speaker 1 [00:17:04] To slow it.
Speaker 2 [00:17:04] Down. So it’ll be interesting in August what the numbers come out for inflation for the month of July, what those inflation numbers look like. Because if we see a peaking of inflation in the month of June, that 9.1% number, if we see it come down even even to like 8.9, eight, 10%, that’s that’s big. That’s a pretty that’s a really good indicator. So if we can see signs of a peak in inflation and maybe the Fed decides to be a little bit less aggressive on raising rates, we could be looking at a pretty good fourth quarter. Yeah. Which which would be fantastic. And which all circles back to the original point that we were making. That’s why you don’t make rash decisions at market highs or market lows because now we’re in a position where we’re looking at a recovery and you want to make sure at the end of the day that you’re enjoying.
Speaker 1 [00:17:53] You can’t take advantage of the recovery if you weren’t there when it started. You want a full advantage anyway.
Speaker 2 [00:17:57] If you take your money out, you’re not going to participate in the recovery.
Speaker 1 [00:18:01] You know what I tell people when when I’ve had discussions, clients have said, so what should we be doing in this, you know, in this scenario? And the way that I always look at it is in order to take best advantage of your investments, you have to be intelligent about your decisions. What you don’t want to do is be emotional. And when you get these wild swings in the market, it’s an emotional decision. You got to throw that one out. Why? You know, last week we had a $1.2 billion Mega millions thing. Why do people go out and buy tickets for that? Because it’s emotional. Because I did it. I’ve spent ten bucks on it. I admit it just for fun. Spent ten I spent ten bucks on hour. And, you know, we had a good laugh about it. And I told Heather McCormick, our insurance agent, that I said, hey, you want me to win that because you get to insure my boat? And she said, Well, I can insure boats. I said, Yeah, but this one’s going to be a really nice boat. The reason why we buy lottery tickets is because of the emotion of What if I won, right? Well, the same thing applies for a lot of people when it comes to investing. The market is spiking through the roof. Oh, I need to go out and buy. Right. Because it’s an emotional decision. Oh, the market has fallen on the floor of the volatility is horrible. I can’t stand it. I got to get out. It’s an emotional decision. If you are invested correctly in the first place, you know these things are coming. There will be there will be spikes in the future and there will be huge downturns in the future. We just don’t know when and how much. If you’re positioned correctly, you should be able to take advantage of that.
Speaker 2 [00:19:38] Well well, here’s the analogy. We probably should’ve led with this, because now that we start talking about lottery win, right? I mean, the analogy is one of the best time to play the lottery when it’s not $1 billion. Yes, absolutely. Because your opportunities or your chances of winning are not won in what was lost.
Speaker 1 [00:19:52] I think it’s one in a 302 million.
Speaker 2 [00:19:55] Won at 302 million. What’s your chance of winning that Mega millions jackpot? The. Guy in Illinois won last week. Poor guy, by the way, just how much in taxes he had to pay is 1.2 billion. What was it he’s only taken home? 443 million. Like, why even play? You’re going to get 60% of your income. 60%.
Speaker 1 [00:20:11] Did he did he take the lump sum? Is that what it was? Yeah. Okay.
Speaker 2 [00:20:15] Poor guy’s left with only 440 million, but.
Speaker 1 [00:20:18] I hate it when has.
Speaker 2 [00:20:19] A ridiculously. I spent that much in taxes. Right, but. But the point is, though, you’re actually more likely to succeed playing the lottery if you play when it’s only only 100 million versus 1.2 billion because nobody.
Speaker 1 [00:20:31] Knows who you are. And you can hide from it a little bit easier.
Speaker 2 [00:20:33] But you’re going to have fewer people playing. Right. But, you know, so anyway, same thing. It’s the same thing with the market. The best time to participate is when fewer people are playing. You know, when when there’s a sale, go buy assets on sale, right? And if you bought at the market bottom, which we’re kind of hoping it was kind of at the end of the second quarter, stocks were on sale.
Speaker 1 [00:20:57] Yep. And then we said we said economics one on one a minute ago was, you know, supply and demand. Well, investing one on one, buy low, sell high. Right. And if you’re being emotional in your decisions, that doesn’t work. And I’m going to take that opportunity to kind of tee up what our next episode is going to be about. You know, we mentioned a minute ago that if you if your investments are positioned correctly, you’re going to take advantage of both the ups and the downs, right? You’re not going to feel that pain. Well, how do you determine how to position those investments correctly? Well, in our not very humble opinion on this one, you need to have a good financial plan, especially people who are already retired or about to be retired. You need a specific type of financial plan called an income plan or an income strategy. And that’s what we’re going to do on our next podcast is talk about some of the different types of income strategies. There’s no one right answer for everybody. They do have to be customized to the individual. But if you if you truly want to not have the emotional swings that the markets have done to people recently, you need a good financial plan because that will dictate what kind of investments you should be and you will have. Add to that.
Speaker 2 [00:22:15] Well, we’ll add to it next weeks. And I’m already getting, you know, Whitney over.
Speaker 1 [00:22:19] This producer in her.
Speaker 2 [00:22:20] Hands saying that we’re, you know, over time, so we’ll go on too much longer. But but yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, it’s all about a plan. As long as you have a plan and you don’t dictate from the plan. And at the end of the day, your plan should include market volatility, because market volatility is inevitable. And inflation recessions are a natural economic cycle. We’re living through one right now. Hopefully we’re starting to recover from one right now, but there’s a possibility that we’re not. And if or not, that’s okay, as long as your plan is positioned accordingly to adjust. You know, when market conditions like this persist, you’re going to be okay. And that’s what we’ll talk about next week, how we kind of one of the main strategies we use to mitigate the impact of any type of recessionary activity that’s occurring out there. So with that, probably a good time to wrap up.
Speaker 1 [00:23:10] Wrap it up.
Speaker 2 [00:23:11] So thanks for watching. If you have any concerns about yourself or you think our content might benefit any of your friends and family, please feel free to share our content with them or feel free to give us a call. Direct Line 502 205 to 1 zero. Ask for myself as for Chris. As for Brian. As for Aaron. As for any one of us. We would be more than happy to have a chat scheduled to come on in, sit down, go over your plan, or start to put one together on your behalf. And we can see how well prepared you are for an economic downturn, such as the one that we’re living through right now. Hopefully, we’re getting through and recovering from at this point. So with that being said, thanks for watching. Appreciate it. The information given herein is taken from sources at IFP Advisors LLC doing business’s independent financial partners, IFP, IFP Securities doing business. This IFP and its advisors believe to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness. This is for informational purposes only and in no event should be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or products. Please consult your tax and or legal advisor before implementing any tax and or legal related strategies mentioned in this publication, as IFP does not provide tax and or legal advice. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without AFP’s express prior written consent securities offered through IFP Securities LLC doing business as independent financial partners, IFP Member of FINRA and SIPC. Investment advice offered through IFP advisors doing business at. As IFP, a registered investment advisor, IFP and Family Wealth Planning Partners are not affiliated. The information given herein is taken from sources that IFP Advisors LLC doing business as IFP, IFP Securities, LLC, doing business as IFP and its advisor is believed to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness. This is for informational purposes only and in no event should be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or products. Please consult your tax and or legal advisor before implementing any tax and or legal related strategies mentioned in this publication, as IFP does not provide tax and or legal advice. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors.