This week on the Money Puzzle we will be discussing how the invasion of Russia into Ukraine is affecting the financial market globally. As footage of combating Government officials, Military forces, and explosions surface it’s hard to ignore what’s going on in the world today. Despite being thousands of miles away from conflict, the US will continue to reap secondhand consequences from halfway across the globe. As gas prices reach an all-time high, financial experts are seeing an impact on international investing, foreign stocks, banking systems, and retirement. Join us next week, we post new content every Wednesday!
Speaker 1 [00:00:03] All right, welcome to the Money Puzzle podcast, I am Brian Ramsey, that is Chris Vaughan and that is Eric Douglas. And today’s a pretty interesting topic. We’re kind of sitting around in our meeting today. We’re like, are our producers just knock something for over there anyway? So we’re sitting here talking about topics we want to talk about and we’re like, Well, what better topic to cover than kind of what’s happening in the world today? And it is the last week of February of 2022. So obviously, it’s the invasion of Russia into Ukraine. And so we thought, what a better topic to cover than just what happens to the market or what affects the markets. When you have a major event around the world? Yeah. So we’re just going to sort of talk about out of the we’ve got five or six different topics. It’s going to sort of do it a round robin style like we normally do and we’ll just kind of go from there. So I think
Speaker 2 [00:00:55] more than anything, we want to clarify we are not breaking down the conflict in any way. Yeah, no.
Speaker 1 [00:01:00] Yeah, yeah, this is purely how it affects the market, right? Yeah, that’s it. This is not we are
Speaker 2 [00:01:05] we are not geopolitical experts by any means.
Speaker 1 [00:01:08] But if you were in our meeting this morning, we certainly were because we knew how we knew how to fix the hole.
Speaker 3 [00:01:12] We had everything solved.
Speaker 1 [00:01:13] We had everything solved. But they’re not going to call and ask us how it is. So all right. So one of the one of the obviously major topics is Russia is a major supplier of energy. Yeah. So how does that affect Chris? How does that affect the world’s, you know, gas prices? And obviously that affects that’s a trickle down effect, right? So it is, yeah, gas prices as to oil producers, as oil distributors, and it’s two gas stations, right?
Speaker 3 [00:01:38] Well, so you obviously you’ve got countries around the world are really upset with Russia for obvious reasons and you get any series of boycotts, things like that. You also there is a concern, whether real or unreal, that the energy supply, especially of oil coming from Russia could be cut off. So people, you know, countries might be choosing to cut it off. It could also be cut off by the conflict itself. So the concern is that if the supply is cut down so you don’t have as many countries supplying it, the demand is not going away. In fact, it’s it’s still going up. That’s what’s going to cause energy prices to go up dramatically. And Russia is a huge supplier of energy. I don’t I don’t think people realize just how big it is.
Speaker 2 [00:02:24] Well, the cost of oil in and of itself just this year alone has already gone up about 26 percent. Yeah. And just to I mean, were you were a hair away from March 1st? So the first two months of the year, the energy prices or the price of oil itself has gone up 26 percent. That’s a huge, huge jump in two months amount of time, strictly based on really what’s happened in the last couple of weeks. It’s also worth noting to clarify you were talking about demand or the appearance of demand because nobody’s really stopped buying Russian Russian oil at this point. But the thought is that there an issue with any type of right, you know, if there’s any type of bottleneck at any point in the supply chain that there will be an increased demand with less supply to be able to account for it. So I think more than anything, once again, we always talk about how irrational the market is and how it’s so emotional. It’s the fear of exactly right. Yeah, a decreased amount of supply along with an increase in demand.
Speaker 1 [00:03:18] Yeah, I think one of the one of the other major fears is that it’s really about the countries in Europe that that Russia funnels energy to is what happens if Russia, for whatever reason. So there’s two fronts what if Russia cuts off the spigot to them exactly to say? And then number two, it’s do those countries want to get involved in this conflict? Because if they do, Russia could then turn the spigot off. And that’s why a lot of these countries surrounding that region, they don’t want to get involved in this because one there, I’d say for the most part, they don’t want to see this invasion. Well, I’d say they don’t want to see it. But number two, they don’t want to disrupt their right energy.
Speaker 2 [00:03:57] Well, Germany gets something like 75 percent of their oil from Russia, right? So that they don’t they need that. They don’t want to make Russia too terribly mad. We always think about how Russia’s this huge, massive country. They have an economy about the size of Italy. It’s not like their economies anywhere near the size of most of these other European countries. But once again, to your point, the the effect of losing that energy source to an economy the size of Germany is now we’re having a much bigger issue with other foreign markets, much greater and much bigger than than Russia.
Speaker 3 [00:04:28] And I would think that gets amplified by the people who study history, know that when you have countries cutting off other countries oil supplies, some people might say, Well, that’s not a big deal. Well, the whole Japanese Pacific theater in World War Two started because of oil supplies being cut off. So there’s a historical precedent that even though we may not be anywhere close to that kind of thing now, who knows? There’s a historical precedent that scares people. And to Eric’s point, the markets are totally emotional. So when you have fear into. Just in the markets, the markets go sideways,
Speaker 1 [00:05:03] and just just as a quick note, when we’re talking about the price of oil and you see the price of crude oil, you know, as they talk about on the news that above $100, it’s the first time in many years it’s it’s above 100 bucks. But just know that is the futures price for oil, correct? Right. So they’re trading for futures, meaning you’re buying a contract. And at some point down the road that contract expires, they deliver a barrel of oil to it. So really, you’re, you know, 60 90 days out for that particular oil. But just because the conflict goes up just means that just means that companies that like gas stations or whatever, really they should be waiting, you know, six to, let’s say, 60, 90 days or whatever that contract is before they raise rate, before they raise prices because of the oil that’s in gasoline right now, they were buying it 40 50 bucks a barrel that they were getting months ago. So there’s some confusion around exactly how that works. But. And that’s a whole different show in itself.
Speaker 2 [00:05:58] But it’s a that’s a whole series.
Speaker 1 [00:06:01] Yeah, it is. But just know that that’s kind of how it works, OK? All right. So number one, let’s talk about stock prices. So companies are not even involved in the oil business that we’ve been talking about, that they’re not domiciled in Russia because we’ll talk about that in a few minutes. But why are stock prices affected when they don’t have anything to do? Why is Coles or Kroger? Why are they affected by what’s happening overseas emotion?
Speaker 2 [00:06:26] I would love to give you some long, lengthy disposition about what’s happening. It’s really emotion in it. Fortunately or not, in today’s world, most stocks have become increasingly correlated to some degree. So you can show, you know, I can, you know, we can list 100 different stocks on the chart. And if you watch that the intraday moves of each one of those stocks that might have zero correlation in any type, you know, whether completely different industries, completely different sizes, you can watch the trading throughout the day when you have major events that are occurring like today, they’re going to trade pretty, very, very similar throughout the day and throughout the weeks. It really is just, for the most part, emotion. Another stat that I saw seventy six seventy five seventy six percent of all companies that have reported earnings so far have beaten their estimates. That’s a huge deal. That’s a big number. Most companies are doing fairly well. You would never know that right now looking at the stock market and what it’s done through the first few months of the year, really the last three or four months. Um, you know, we’re we’re we’re in correction territory, but most of that’s because of the emotion from this Russia and Ukraine conflict.
Speaker 3 [00:07:33] Well, I would I would take that another step. We were talking about the price of oil. Just a minute ago. Well, if you think about the retailers out there who are selling clothes, well, oil doesn’t affect them. Well, yeah, it does. Because the clothes or the products or whatever it is that they’re selling in their stores had to get to this. Absolutely. And those come in with trucks and trucks run on diesel fuel, which comes from oil. So oil is a huge driver and all these things. The one I was explaining to my kids the other day when they were trying to grasp this, we were talking about inflation. I said, how many vegetables when we go up to the grocery store are grown in a field behind the grocery store. And the answer is zero. Everything has to be shipped in trucks. So these companies, their expenses are going up because of just simply trying to get supplies to the to the end user. And then the emotion kicks in. Well, what if they won’t be able to get the supplies into their stores now their sales go down in, therefore for profits go with them.
Speaker 2 [00:08:31] But that hasn’t occurred yet. Right. So that is the fear of any potential future loss that might occur in any one of those individual stocks, which is obviously affecting the price of those stocks.
Speaker 1 [00:08:45] Yeah. So when it comes to domestic stocks and domestic stocks are companies that are actually domiciled here in the United States, by the way, that’s the definition of it. But what we’ll find out is starting in, let’s say, April timeframe. We’ll see because that’s what numbers will start to earnings to start to come up for the first quarter. Will really see the the true effect of are we still going out and spending money, right? That’s what we’re really going to find. That’s kind of that April-May time frame. But all right, so let’s talk about stocks are domiciled overseas that I think they’re going to be more affected, especially kind of in the European Southeast Asia, because that’s where Russia’s is in that territory. So, so how would they be affected in your opinion? How are they affected more than companies are doing this out here,
Speaker 3 [00:09:30] Eric, when you started,
Speaker 2 [00:09:32] they’re closer to the action, so to speak. So whenever you invest, especially in foreign investments, foreign stocks, you’re taking on an additional layer of geopolitical risk for. I mean, obviously for the better, for us in the United States, we are sheltered for the most part from all of that geopolitical risk that you see overseas. We just have a much bigger, far more robust economy. We are much more stable geopolitically. I mean, I know we have a lot of infighting. Whatever side of the political aisle you might be on. And it’s at times when you watch the media and read the headlines, it might seem unstable here locally, but compared to what’s happening throughout the rest of the world, it’s is night and day. It really is. We’re so far more stable. Plus, we have yet to remember we had oceans on both sides of us. So a lot of these conflicts. I mean, there’s a whole ocean to get to to get before they ever come to reach us. So you just have far more instability, you know, when you’re investing internationally. We made a decision last year, we moved away from investing internationally. It’s proven to be very, very strategic on our part. Just because we saw what was happening, all the supplies to cover to, you know, we had all this COVID restrictions that were occurring locally, but they were far worse and a lot of other countries.
Speaker 3 [00:10:47] So, yeah, so I mean, just to follow up on that, the geopolitical part of it, the reason why international investing is considered to be more risky than domestic investing is because we have no control over the way that those governments are going to react to whatever stimulus is out there for them. So that’s the reason why international investing is a little bit more risky.
Speaker 2 [00:11:11] It’s even control. It’s difficult to to be a passive investor with foreign stocks because if you can just track like a foreign or an international index, those those foreign indices don’t really track any type of geopolitical risk that might be occurring on the ground that you can’t really pick up within an index itself. So they’re, yeah, they’re just far more volatile.
Speaker 1 [00:11:31] Yeah, yeah. So the other quick note I’ll just add is that I believe it was over the weekend, some of the European countries decided to not allow Russian banks to enter intervene in the Swift program. Whatever that did, we were talking about this before the before the podcast. I don’t know what Swift might have to read up on. We have time to really research that. But but my point is that there are there are some quick decisions that larger countries can make that will totally impact in the banking system. For example, that’s going to be a huge impact on the European Banking Committee community. So that’s again, that’s one of those things that the appetite for international right now is is going to be lower, really low. Yeah, really low. You know, it’s across the board. Yeah, just because of the instability. So so it is an issue when you when you invest internationally, I want to bring it up because, you know, we’ve made the point in our portfolios to to get out of that in our timing, we obviously didn’t see this coming, but our timing was pretty good that we didn’t necessarily see that. I mean, they were talking about it six or nine months ago when we decided to do that. But uh, but what was going to happen or potentially happen? But, you know, we got lucky on that one. So, all right. So let’s talk about when you have world events like this. And yes, we’re specifically talking about what’s happening in Russia, but there’s other world events that happen, and some of them happen in United States, but they also happen overseas where, you know, you might think, well, that’s on the other side of the world. Why is that? What does that impact me? China, for example, is now, I believe, in my opinion, has sort of a green light to it Thailand, Taiwan, Taiwan and Taiwan. And I believe that’s I believe that Russia and China got together and said, Hey, you go first and I’ll go next and we’ll just see what we know they got together.
Speaker 3 [00:13:18] We don’t know what they discussed.
Speaker 1 [00:13:19] We don’t it’ll never be released. But my guess is that that could potentially happen, but hopefully it doesn’t. But if it does, that’s just another component of something happening internationally that, you know, a lot of people say, Well, how does it affect my 401k? I’ve got it. You know, I’m I’m a, you know, I work at a company here in the United States. How does that affect me? Okay.
Speaker 3 [00:13:40] Well, here’s a great example. Over the last year, we’ve had a problem with computer chip supply. Well, I guess which country is one of the biggest manufacturers of computer chips and is Taiwan? So in your 401k, let’s just say that you owned Ford stock. You know, traditionally that’s a great company. It’s a big one here locally. But Ford doesn’t make its own computer chips. They have to buy in from somewhere else. And if they’re buying some of them that are manufactured in Taiwan, that becomes a supply issue. So that could cause Ford stock to go down in this example, which would affect your four one K if you’ve got that kind of a holding it
Speaker 1 [00:14:16] in only for about another year because they’re they’re manufacturing largest chip manufacturing plant built the United States. Yeah, so exactly. I believe it’s in Arizona,
Speaker 3 [00:14:25] which is one of the reasons why there’s something like that, which is one of the reasons why American companies have a desire to do that to eliminate these problems in the future. But they’re still very much there right now.
Speaker 1 [00:14:34] Oh yeah, yeah, absolutely. So, but I guess the point that we wanted to make here was there’s just a lot of investor fear that causes the market to to be, you know, kind of volatile, right? Because as an individual investor, you’re, you know, you get to a point, you’re like, Oh, my gosh, this is happening over there. So now I’m going to want a more sell out of my portfolio. And we’ve gotten a couple of phone calls, right? And we get a couples like, Oh my gosh, the world’s coming to an end. The world’s come. Tune in and and so I want these guys to talk about we talk about investor fears and things that are in the market that cause people to think and will say irrationally, but that’s kind of what it is. Right? But so when you look at any specific time period, you might say, OK, here’s this Russia thing the world’s coming to an end, and it really never comes to an end. Right, right. So why don’t you guys bring your pieces out and each of you talk about Chris, you got one and then Eric’s got one, and I’ll tell you, I’ll take this. I’ve got to put the cheaters on them. Yeah. So anyway, why don’t you? Let’s just kind of go around, talk about what piece you’ve got, and then we’ll have Eric. And then I’ll talk about this piece right here. So, Chris,
Speaker 3 [00:15:43] well, I mean, you know, we’ve got a list here that was put out by LPL research on some big events that have happened historically and what the stock market did immediately and then how long it took to recover back to where it was, right? So for example, and I’m going to go way back and I’m got to start by Pearl Harbor, right? We kind of mentioned that one a minute ago. So what did Pearl Harbor do? This is the S&P 500 now. In one day it dropped 3.8 percent. Right. So that’s a big, big number,
Speaker 1 [00:16:15] especially back in there. Exactly.
Speaker 3 [00:16:16] And it ended up going all the way down to nineteen point eight percent. So massive drawdown, right? But it took one hundred and forty three days to get to the bottom, and it took three hundred and seven to get back to where it was pre. So I just looked that one up just for fun. Three hundred and seven days later is right about the time that the Battle of Midway happened. So all it took under an extremely bad situation like this was the emotion of seeing things starting to change the other direction and the market’s there. So that was one that I think,
Speaker 2 [00:16:53] yeah, yeah. I mean, I’ve read another analysis and this one started off very specifically saying they weren’t endorsing war in any way, shape or form, but they were basically saying most of the negative stock market action when it comes to conflicts like this occurs before with the fear of what could happen. Usually, once there’s any type of fighting to your point, it turns, it turns around. And it did. It happened last week and we’ve had today’s down a little bit, but we had two fantastic days to cap off the week last week, kind of out of nowhere which would go,
Speaker 3 [00:17:27] which goes back to the emotional component.
Speaker 2 [00:17:29] It would defy logic because, OK, we’re past the point of fear now. We’re in the middle of it. And OK, well, it’s it’s going probably better for most people than they thought with with Ukraine really fighting back and it’s kicking this thing out now. Who knows where we’ll be in another week or two? That could all change. But you know, all that to say most of these world events and you took like the worst one.
Speaker 3 [00:17:48] Yeah, I went for the for the big bad one of the group.
Speaker 2 [00:17:51] Yeah, but you look at most of these other world events and some more recent ones that have occurred, um, you know, pull us pulled out of Afghanistan in twenty twenty one. I mean, there was a total drawdown of 0.1 percent. You know, Iranian general killed in the airstrike in twenty twenty three point seven percent drop Saudi Aramco drone strike dropped four percent total. You know that one took a total of forty one days to recover from from that four percent drop. Most of these world events, once again, I always talk about zooming out. When you look at the stock market, you have to zoom out and see everything through a bigger lens and you can see, you know, what feels like a major drop. It turns into a blip on the radar screen as we recover and move well past that point.
Speaker 3 [00:18:35] Um, see, I think looking at those things to your point of stepping back the best example that I ever heard. You know, if you’re looking at what the stock markets have done over time and you’re standing really close to it, what you’re going to get is you’re going to see all the ups and downs. But when you step back, you see more of a trend line. It’s kind of like looking at a mountain. If you’re standing on the mountain, you see every crevasse and every rock and every bad thing you’ve got to climb over. When you step back into the valley, what you see is the line of the mountain going up, and that’s kind of the way that it looks.
Speaker 2 [00:19:08] I’ll even take that analogy one step further. I heard this one. I thought that was this was really cool. It’s like a mountain climber using a yo-yo climbing up the mountain. Mm hmm. The stock market is the yo yo. It goes up and down. It goes up and down. It bounces right. But the whole time it’s still going up the mountain and over time, like, they’ll increase by example. So I thought that was a really cool analogy. But to go kind of even beyond that, when you look at so what I’ve got is eighty seven reasons why people did not invest in the stock market. And it basically takes like over the past 87 seven years and talks about a major political event that occurred in the stock market or throughout the world that year. And really, what’s the stock market done in the backdrop of all of these events occurring? So, you know, 1993 World Trade Center was bombed in 1994. The Fed raises interest rates six times. Does that sound familiar? Like anything? Might be happening right now, right? You know, ninety five U.S. troops were sent to Bosnia, there was the Whitewater scandal in 96 and 97. Hong Kong reverts back to China. Ninety eight, President Clinton was impeached. Why to Y2K scare in 1999? Geez, that feels like yesterday. Oh my gosh. Everybody scared their computers are going to blow up when the clock struck midnight on. Get early out of your eighteen. Oh, that was. Yeah, that turned out was a big nothing burger to. But every single year and you can pick a year and, you know, tsunami in Asia and 04 interest rates rise in 06, you know, 2008 the worst market conditions since the 1930s. Well, what happened after 2008 and 2009? We’ve had the best 10 year run in the market, well, 12 year run in the market and ever since then. So there’s always a reason not to invest. And yet, you know, those are opportunities lost if you look in the rearview mirror that you should have invested throughout the entirety of that time. So, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1 [00:20:57] So this third piece, this is a pretty insane one I’ve had. I’ve had this and this is by a fund company called Legg Mason. You can actually go to their website, just Google Legg Mason and type in Time magazine, up in the search bar and you’ll get this piece. I’m sure it’s been updated. This is one we’ve had in the office for a while. It’s slightly dated, but the interesting thing is when you when you unfold this and I know you can’t see and don’t don’t you don’t have to zoom in. But essentially what it does is it breaks down and shows you all these time periods of horrible time magazine covers where they’re essentially saying, Hey, this is everything that we just been talking about, right? Is all these one every single year that Eric’s talking about, and it basically says, look at the cover of Time magazine, you’re going to get a horrible piece of news and then look out. Look what the market does afterwards, right? So that’s what this piece is. It’s really interesting. But on the inside cover right here, it talks about the four worst periods since they’ve been tracking it. There was a bear market of seventy three nineteen seventy three. For those that are millennials, it’s nineteen in front of that, not a 20. And then you’ve got the nineteen eighty seven bear market that was Black Friday like Monday or Tuesday, whatever it was Monday and Monday. And then you have the bear market, of course, of twenty. That was kind of the dot.com issue. And then you had the real estate debacle of 08. And it gives it just gives the numbers. So from peak to trough meaning from the high, from the high where the market was at the time to the low and it was going to go back to 08 because that’s probably the more recent one, right? So this in again, you go back and look and this thing is only up through 2015. So it’s slightly dated. I’m sure if you were to get the most recent one, it would have all the way up until probably last year. But anyway, from peak to trough, so from the high all the way to Zillow, the S&P 500 was down 54 percent is where it ultimately was. It was the ultimate low. If you look one year after that low, it was up 70 percent from from that low. Five years later, it’s up 200 percent after that low. And again, we don’t have a 10 year number. This goes one, five and 10 year. So we do have a 10 year number on this. But anyway, point being the point being this whole conversation is that, you know, things that happen in the world are obviously disruptive, right? Causes the market to be disruptive and you know, it can affect the numbers. We’ll find out at the beginning of April into March or really mid April into March when we get an earnings season, April and May. Sorry, may we go. And it started in May, but we’ll get into earnings season and we’ll find out really how companies did because really at the Christie to start at the end of the day, which we said we were going to borrow from our vocabulary, I did. But in all reality, at the end of the day, companies that we invest in that are invested in the mutual funds that we own or the ETFs that we own, they should trade based off the earnings that they produce in the story. Right? That’s really what they should trade off. However, there’s all this noise that happens between, you know, the four times that they report earnings throughout the year, and it can cause the stock to do all this good stuff. But it but when they re but when they report earnings, that’s really how we look at it and see, you know, the kind of health of the company. And it sort of goes like this. And all of a sudden the earnings comes out and says, OK, this is where it should be or this is where it should be, and then it starts all over again. So but what were you can’t do if we see this over and over is have your emotions take over what you think about a particular company. So for example, if you like Apple and you like their product and you use their product, you wear the product and you like their stock, own their stock, but don’t think of it. Oh, there’s disruption over in China and Russia, and all of a sudden, you know, the iPhones, iPhones still going to be a good phone. They’re still going to produce as much as they possibly can to meet all the demand. So you just can’t get that emotion and say, Well, I’m going to immediately sell out of Apple because something crazy has happened it over over in that part of the world. So. I guess that’s kind of the point, right?
Speaker 3 [00:25:01] These are temporary hit. They’re not long term when you’re dealing with companies that are good, solid companies. Every good relationship has ups and downs. But if it’s a good company, it will over time eventually go up
Speaker 2 [00:25:16] the fundamentals of investing that change. Absolutely. Buy good stuff. Let them do what they’re supposed to do.
Speaker 1 [00:25:21] Leave it on. Yeah, that’s right. So I guess that’s a good way to in the end, the show is exactly what Eric said. I’m angry, Peter, because you guys early. And if you didn’t hit the backspace 10 seconds a couple of times, you’ll be back to areas. Last statement So all right. So it’s another edition of the Money Puzzle podcast. We are next week going to release one on taxes. We’re actually going to shoot that just second. That’s going to be really interesting one. And just as a quick note, the word taxes came from. We were just out in Arizona. We spent the last the end of last week out in Arizona doing a little taping, which hopefully we can release here in a couple of weeks on what that is actually coming out in a couple weeks. This will come out in a couple of weeks, right? Yeah. So it’s about four weeks from the day. We’re keeping this, but I think this will be released in a couple of weeks or at least next week. But anyway, anyway, it’s April 2nd is our big announcement. So just keep that demand we get prior to that will make that announcement. We’re pretty excited about it. Again, we were out in Arizona and one of the topics we got to discuss that there was Texas, and so we thought, Oh, let’s do another podcast on it and talk about other taxes other than what we talked about on that show. So anyway, that’s it. I’ll let Eric sent us off today, and we’ll see you guys next week.
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