We are back with The Money Puzzle Podcast! This week we are breaking down what a recession is, and the Do’s and Don’ts of handling your money during a recession. Working with a financial advisor can help you be prepared for whatever the economy will throw at you! Join us next week, we post new content every Wednesday! Schedule a meeting with us to discuss how your puzzle pieces fit together.
Speaker 1 [00:00:02] Hi. Welcome to the Money Pit. I am Brian. That is Chris and that is Eric. Who? Chris actually forgot Eric’s name a couple weeks ago.
Speaker 2 [00:00:10] That was one of the most embarrassing things I’ve ever done.
Speaker 1 [00:00:13] I’m just saying, we’ve only been working together for 30 years now.
Speaker 3 [00:00:17] We just met, apparently.
Speaker 1 [00:00:18] Yeah, and it’s funny. Chris is up for the room and he goes, and that’s Eric. I don’t.
Speaker 2 [00:00:25] Know. I forgot. Eric.
Speaker 1 [00:00:26] I thought you just forgot.
Speaker 2 [00:00:28] Well, I mean, just the brain shut down, and I used the lack of coffee as an excuse. It was like you did this embarrassing thing.
Speaker 1 [00:00:34] It was. It was pretty funny, but actually, I’m just.
Speaker 3 [00:00:36] That easily forgettable.
Speaker 1 [00:00:38] Actually, I didn’t know that. Yeah, I actually didn’t know what you were getting ready to talk about. And then. And then I caught on that you forgot his name. So pretty funny anyways. Bad. Yeah. So. So it’s interesting that we bring that part up about forgetting names because today is all about a recession. So we’ve. It’s all of the news, right? I mean, every time you turn something on, it’s this fear of a recession. So it’s always these times in the market which we wish we could forget. And so so just like Chris forgetting Eric’s name, sometimes when it’s a recession or even a bad market, we like to forget those.
Speaker 2 [00:01:10] I was wondering how you’re going to tie that in pretty good.
Speaker 1 [00:01:12] It’s always your eyes. I’m trying. But anyway, so today’s all better recession. So really the first part of this, we’re going to define what a recession is. And doing a little research, we found out that there’s many definitions of a recession or sometimes the definition of a recession is sometimes misinterpreted. And then we’ll talk about so the do’s and don’ts during a recession. So we got a few little statistics that are pretty interesting. We found as we were doing research for the show in the 5 minutes we did the research.
Speaker 2 [00:01:40] For the show.
Speaker 3 [00:01:41] That’s more resources in the that you all just grabbed me out of my office. Yeah. Doing a podcast.
Speaker 1 [00:01:44] Well I did. Come on. Ready. He’s like, what are we talking about? Recession. Well, well, we’ll get there. I’ll come up with something. All right. So, first of all, just so you guys know, we actually have so we changed the name of this podcast to the money puzzle. We actually have a TV show comes on every Saturday morning, 1030 on the ABC affiliate here in Mobile.
Speaker 2 [00:02:04] Yes.
Speaker 1 [00:02:05] Yes, we actually think it’s Channel worldwide. Channel 11. Yeah. Yeah, Channel 11. No, not eight. I think on spectrum. But anyway and now our now we got a phone going off. But anyway, so just so just so everybody knows, make sure you watch that. We actually post that on Saturday. I believe we’re trying to get that noise to turn off.
Speaker 2 [00:02:32] Most producers back here just jumping through hoops and she can’t make this.
Speaker 1 [00:02:36] Yeah, that’s it. That’s pretty funny. I’ve never seen a move so fast. But anyway, so the. The show we posted. The show that airs on Saturday. So make sure you tune into that and make sure that when we post it on, I think it’s Monday that we post it. Just make sure you like it and share it. Celebrate it with us. That’d be awesome. So, all right. So we looked up. So just real quick, we looked at the definition of a recession and what we found.
Speaker 2 [00:03:05] Well, it was interesting because we were talking about, you know, let’s make sure that we got the definition right. And when we looked it up and just for reference, we looked it up in Barron’s Investment Dictionary. Yeah. And it actually gives you a vague answer because it says most economists would define it. Right. So it is subjective, but most economists would define it as two consecutive quarters of poor, I believe was the word that it used, declining, declining gross domestic product or GDP. Yeah. And then we actually had an interesting discussion. Does that mean year over year, meaning as compared to the same quarter last year or is that compared to the previous quarter? It actually doesn’t define it.
Speaker 1 [00:03:51] No, it doesn’t. It doesn’t clearly define. So what what I always interpret it was negative GDP growth, meaning it had to be a negative number, but it just says a decline. So right. Like last quarter and this is what Chris and I got in a debate before this, because my understanding was it’s negative GDP growth, but it and it depends on how you record it. But if you were at 7% the previous quarter and it’s down to five, let’s not negative. You’re still growing at 5%, but it has to be a net. It’s negative from the last quarter. Right. And so that’s where the the interpretations of a recession, I think, are all.
Speaker 2 [00:04:27] Over the place. I agree that that was the biggest takeaway is what really is a recession? Well, it depends on who you talk to.
Speaker 1 [00:04:32] Yeah.
Speaker 3 [00:04:33] Yeah. I think the big thing, too, about a recession is to your point, I’ve always defined it as negative. You have growth in two consecutive quarters, not necessarily year over year or anything like that, but it always goes back also as well as what you never know, you’re in a recession. And so after the quarterly numbers come out.
Speaker 1 [00:04:51] Yeah, that’s right.
Speaker 3 [00:04:51] Yeah. So we just had the first quarter numbers come out and we did have that negative growth number and GDP. I forgot what it was like. Negative one 1.6.
Speaker 1 [00:04:59] Yeah. I think 1417161 for you.
Speaker 3 [00:05:02] I guess I wasn’t prepared for this at all. Yeah.
Speaker 1 [00:05:05] I mean, it was the subject was when we started, we can’t even define how the recession is. But if we had but we have.
Speaker 3 [00:05:10] Another negative quarter I’m sorry, a negative number of quarterly GDP growth. Well, we’re already in the second quarter. We’re not going to know what that number is until middle of summer. Right. So we could potentially already technically be in a recession, which is why you’re seeing a lot of talking heads on CNBC and all the other, you know, financial news channels talking about it so heavily at this point.
Speaker 2 [00:05:33] I actually heard an article that was right along that lines yesterday on one of the news channels that that said, we can’t define that we’re in a recession until roughly July when the Q2 numbers come out, which you could be completely out of the recession before you find out you’re in it to your point.
Speaker 1 [00:05:49] Yeah. Yeah. So it’s interesting. We came up with some statistics before we get into the dos and don’ts. And I guess the the well, the first point I want to make is when you’re talking about a recession, there are so many interpretations of recession that it’s a little hard to define exactly what it is. I think that’s what is really what we what we interpret in our in our findings, but some interesting statistics. So how many recessions, of course, you know, I will ask you, because you are an introvert. I don’t know what you’re going to ask. Yeah, I know. But how many recessions do you think has been in the history of the markets? How many recessions says the economy?
Speaker 3 [00:06:27] So so we’re going back 100 years plus. Yeah. So if I had to guess, I would say probably 20, 25.
Speaker 1 [00:06:33] Yeah, 48, 48. And I thought that was yeah, I thought it was a lot more than what because really if you think about in the last 15 years, it’s not been that many and we’ll talk about that too. But so 48 I was blown away. I probably would have said 20 something just right along with you. So I was I was actually blown away as 48 agreed it was okay.
Speaker 2 [00:06:53] That was a big number. I would have said 20. Yeah, but I think it kind of goes back to that point and maybe I’m kind of stealing your thunder a little bit sometimes because of the way it’s defined. You’re out of the recession before you know that you’re in it. So maybe that’s why we don’t remember a lot of them because we didn’t really feel it.
Speaker 1 [00:07:10] Yeah. Yeah. So the and so the last one we had was in 27. 28. Yeah, right. That was the last real recession. As a matter of fact, we in 2020 we should have had a recession, right? Yeah. First quarter of 20/22 quarter, 2020, even the third quarter. I have said before that I actually thought we were headed to a depression, which is a whole different set.
Speaker 2 [00:07:33] That’s a different.
Speaker 1 [00:07:33] Story. That’s a negative GDP growth of 10% for four consecutive quarters. I think that’s probably where we were headed. But the the government stepped in and said, now we’re just going to start funneling cash out. And we prevented that. But we were able. Literally had to recession. There was no question about that. But again, Neal, the government stepped in and started doling out a bunch of money and.
Speaker 3 [00:07:55] Now we’re seeing the results of that.
Speaker 1 [00:07:56] Yeah, well.
Speaker 3 [00:07:57] That’s a whole other podcast.
Speaker 1 [00:07:58] Yeah, it is. It is. So that’s the I was 2007, 2008, the one before that. 2019 99 to 2001. Right. Was the other recession. So now, if you think about that, which I thought maybe we had had another one in between that I’m just kind of thinking back and saying, well, we had a bunch of negative we had some negative periods. But the interesting thing is you can have a negative period like we had, you know, say in 2020, right, where the markets fell off by 30 or the S&P was down 33, 34%. But just because the market’s negative doesn’t mean GDP was negative. Right?
Speaker 2 [00:08:36] I think I was just thinking I think a lot of people confuse recession with what the markets are doing. Yeah. And they’re obviously they’re related. But the recession is a GDP figure, not necessarily what the markets are doing right.
Speaker 3 [00:08:49] Now, but it’s an economic figure. It has nothing well, it has something to do with the stock market, but there’s really no direct correlation, correct?
Speaker 1 [00:08:56] So, yeah, exactly. All right. So, Jim, I know how long the average recession lasts. Now, so when I Googled, this is pretty interesting. You can go back and look at all the different recessions and it talks about how long it actually lasts and the early years. So like in the 1800s or whatever, they were lasting for three, four or five years. But the ones that were more current were quicker, they were a lot shorter in duration. So the average is 17.5 months, which I thought was pretty interesting. 17 a half months, you’re typically in and out of a recession. So I thought that was very interesting and I did not check the one 2008. I didn’t I didn’t go back and check and see the time length on that, but I think it was over a year. Best I can remember.
Speaker 2 [00:09:42] What it like March of 2009 or something like that.
Speaker 1 [00:09:45] Well, March was March was definitely when the market bottomed was April.
Speaker 3 [00:09:51] End of March. Beginning of April oh nine.
Speaker 2 [00:09:53] Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1 [00:09:54] Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think it was in March. But anyway. All right, so all right, so what are the things that what are some of the things that we see common things that we see clients do or other folks do in the investment world when we go into a recession, what are some of the things you guys typically see?
Speaker 2 [00:10:11] Well, I mean, the first thing that I would think of is what Eric was just pointing out a minute ago. They’re reacting with their investments to something that is not correlated to their investments. They start selling out of positions. They start panicking and getting out of the market altogether. All kinds of things that are reactionary instead of being proactive to it. That’s the biggest thing that I see people do well.
Speaker 3 [00:10:36] The biggest is funny. So the biggest days in the stock market occur. The biggest updates in the market occur after the biggest down days. Yeah. What happened so many times and and luckily knock on wood we really at least personally I haven’t really experienced this with too many clients at this point, but people get overly emotional and they see a few down days in a row and they say, Oh, I need to react. You know, I need to make a change. I need to do this. I need to do that. Well, then you’re going to miss out on the good days because no one can ever call the quote unquote bottom right. You just you just can’t. If you call the bottom, you just you’re never going to be able to do that effectively. It’s just luck if you do. It’s really lucky if you do in every now you’re going to get someone you know becomes really well known for calling it, you know, a few called, you know, what happened in oh eight. They’ve also been calling for stuff ever since then. Yeah, I’ve been hearing there’s a recession coming, there’s a crash coming for the last decade and it just hasn’t materialized. And, you know, there’s always somebody saying that is going to happen and yeah, someone’s going to be right every now and then. You can’t effectively do that with your investments time after time. If you if you become overly emotional and you move yourself out of the market, you’re going to miss a lot of the run back up. And so if you’re going to sell at a bottom well, and if you’re sold out, you’re not going to enjoy the ride back up because inevitably we will come out of this.
Speaker 2 [00:11:53] And I mean, this week has been a great example. Wednesday of this week we had horrible, horrible market conditions. I mean, everything was just tanking. And yet on Thursday, we had I think it was the second best day in the last 30 years or something like that. So to your point, the best day is usually right after that really horrible day. So bailing out is frequently the worst thing that you could do. Mm hmm.
Speaker 1 [00:12:20] Yeah, I think. I think what’s interesting is and we’ve talked about this in other podcasts, you know, one of the worst things that investors can do is sit around and watch these outlets or where they get this news about the markets all the time because they absolutely scared to death. And, you know, Eric did we did a podcast a number maybe a year or so ago and he looked at the correlation of headlines from CNBC, I think was CNBC, right? Yeah, it was. Okay. I think it was. CBC headlines versus what happened in the market. And even though there were days in the market, the CNBC headline was still negative. So they’re trying to drive this negative thought process around the markets. Even either even though the markets are positive, they still have a negative headline. And I think that’s that’s we get a lot of calls, you know, from clients that are just calling in, asking questions, hey, what’s going on? I hear this recession thing. Tell me, what are you guys doing? What do you guys think about it? And and that’s a great thing to call your adviser and say, what is it that you got? What do you think? What should we be doing? A lot of times we just sort of walk you through it and say there’s no reason to bail out of the market. There’s no reason to to do any kind of panic selling. There’s no reason to do anything. If nothing stage your life, there’s no reason to do anything. And a lot of times, in almost every case, they’ll say, you know what, I feel better about it. I’ve talked about it and I’m good. But where did they come up with this pre-seed notion that the markets are falling apart? It’s because they’re watching CNBC or, you know, Fox Business or wherever. They’re getting their information, they’re seeing all these horrible headlines. And again, it goes back to people. They get on these shows. They don’t get on there to paint rosy pictures. They get on there for doom and gloom because that’s what that’s what sells, right? That’s what sells. And so if you can just limit your exposure, I think you’re I think people would just be much better off.
Speaker 2 [00:14:08] You’ll end up with lower blood pressure. Yeah. Better health just for not being stressed out. And I would say one of the other things is when they talk about the markets going down, they’re talking about some major indices. They’re not talking about your portfolio. They’re talking about the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial or the Nasdaq. Those are the three big ones. And they’ll throw in a few other ones from time to time. But just because the market is down, say, 5%, that doesn’t mean that your investments are down that much, right? In fact, they probably aren’t. If you’ve got a good financial plan, your investments are going to be based upon where you are at that particular period in your life. And they’re going to do exactly what they’re supposed to do if it’s done correctly.
Speaker 3 [00:14:51] Yeah, that’s where I was going to go to as well. I mean, so I sat down with someone a couple of weeks ago, been a client for a few years now and fantastic clients, and they weren’t really worried about the market, but we were having that discussion about what’s going on, what we thought, you know, prognostications, all of that, right? We went through the whole thing and then of course we get to their portfolio and performance and we’re reviewing everything when we get to the plan and you go to the planning, all the plan that we’ve done, nothing has changed in their plan, absolutely nothing. They don’t need to make a single change to their income. They don’t need to make a single change to their portfolio allocation. We had them properly balanced, properly allocated before any of this happens. So they weren’t fully exposed to the drop because they they didn’t need that much risk in there in their portfolio. They are totally fine. Right. Everything from the probability of success of their plan doing well. We’re still well above 90 500%. We were good. There was no need to be alarmed. They saw that. I’m good. Walked out, very happy. Chat about.
Speaker 1 [00:15:52] Everything. Yeah, we were all good from there. Yeah, I think so. You bring up an interesting point. I think part of part of the issue is that we’re very short sighted when we look at things that are happening today. So we look at how does this how does the market you know, when it fell off, it was seven days ago. We look we look at our portfolio and say, oh, my gosh, the world’s coming to an end. But as opposed to looking at the longer term horizon to say, okay, one day out of, you know, thousands and thousands of days and I’m going to, you know, live and have my portfolio, it’s one day, right. And so while one day can make an impact, we shouldn’t make a rush to judgment based on that. So you really do need to sit down and get your plan done. Right. And, you know, nearly all of our clients have have some sort of financial plan that we go through every year and, you know, just say, look, the bigger picture is, yeah, yeah, we had we had a negative day. And I’ll tell you, the worst meetings of the world, we come in and show a client that they have a negative portfolio growth. Right. That’s never a great conversation. But when we look at the bigger picture to say, yes, I don’t know what the market’s going to be tomorrow, but I know one thing down the road, it’s going to be higher than where where the last time we just had the. I know that’s going to happen. I don’t know when, but I know it will. And look at your financial plan. It’s 95% or 100% successful. So, yes, we’re going to have these up and down days. But overall, the likelihood of you running out of money, which is every client concern. Right, is the probability is near zero then. So I think that’s that’s really kind of the biggest point that we can make in all this recession stuff, that there’s fears and fear mongering on TV is just have a good plan in place and look long term. Yes, it’s important to look short term. Right, because you want to know you want to know your advisor’s making good decisions. You’re in your portfolio and he’s doing the best they can. He, he or she. Sorry. Don’t send emails. You send them somewhere to do this. But it’s just important that, you know, your advisor is you’re making changes in your portfolio to kind of fit what’s happening right now in the markets. But but just, you know, don’t don’t make any crazy decisions based on one day when you have such a long time horizon, I guess.
Speaker 3 [00:18:05] And that’s not to say that we don’t make changes. We do?
Speaker 1 [00:18:08] Oh, absolutely.
Speaker 3 [00:18:09] We make tweaks and we make adjustments. And that’s that’s why we’re here. Right? That’s what we do. But we don’t overreact. We’re not going through and changing everyone’s portfolio just because we had a couple of down days. If we believe in the things that we’ve done, if we believe in the the research that we’ve conducted and putting together our portfolios, well, yeah, we’re going to stand by them and we’re going to kind of let them, you know, work out the kinks, work, work through the market. So yeah, I mean, we weren’t necessarily totally sitting on the sidelines, but we’re also not being overly emotional or overreacting to the short term headlines that we’re seeing in the news.
Speaker 1 [00:18:43] Well, look, I mean, we just did that, right? I mean, we so we meet as a team every every well, we meet every week, but we specifically meet once a month as an investment committee. And we talk about sort of what’s happening in the markets. You know, what is our portfolio look like? What are our holdings look like? How have they performed? We put stuff on a watch list. We had a mutual fund. We sort of put it on a watch list for a couple of months. And then, you know, let’s say a month, month and a half or so ago, we said, okay, it’s time for us to make some modifications. We fear the fear of this recession thing. We’re in a rising interest rate environment. So we all did a research and say what what asset classes performed better historically when we are in a recession, fear. And so we made steps in case we go into a recession. We made the steps because we know the recession, again, is a lagging indicator. Right. So we won’t know until after the sink. We did. We talked about that. So what can we do today to have our portfolios perform better if in fact, that’s where we actually are? And so we did that. We made some changes. Now, if we get to three months down the road and decide that that’s not where we’re headed and the economy’s picked back up, then we can make those modifications again. But something we’ll talk about all the time. But again, it’s just important that you guys, the you know, that your advisor should be making modifications, right? It’s not something that we should sit around and do absolutely nothing. We should be making changes. But it’s again, we’re not going in and saying, oh, my gosh, get completely out of the market. We’re never going to have that viewpoint. At least I don’t think so.
Speaker 3 [00:20:12] We’re not going all the gold or anything.
Speaker 1 [00:20:14] No, no, no, that but we’ve had those questions.
Speaker 3 [00:20:17] I’ve had a few of those question.
Speaker 1 [00:20:18] Can we put gold in our portfolio? No, we can’t. No, we’re not going to do that. And if you want to know why, just call us and we’ll explain that you’re really not buying gold when you when you invest in a gold fund. So you’re buying into the options contract for gold. So we won’t go down that road. But anyway. All right. So any final thoughts on recession sort of ideas, you know, that we would give the.
Speaker 2 [00:20:39] One thought that I would have is kind of go back and revisit what we had just said, is if you’ve got a good financial plan now, that does not mean that you’ve got investments. That means you have a plan. The investments support the plan. Then these types of things are expected. They are they are planned on. We know they’re coming and you’ll be fine if you stick to the plan.
Speaker 3 [00:21:01] Can I said it better fully agree. That’s what we do. Yeah, it’s right behind me.
Speaker 2 [00:21:05] Well, I’ve had Eric’s chance to point out the planning part. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, that’s in the name for a reason.
Speaker 1 [00:21:10] Yeah, it absolutely is. And, you know, just just add so it is something that we do on an ongoing basis. We do review plans every year. It’s not something we just do is a snapshot in time because we believe that, you know, your life changes, right? Everybody goes through changes. You go through market changes, you go through life changes and you got to know how your assets are affected by your changes. And so but again, that’s why we do financial planning. So with that being said, we’ll call it a day on recession. Hopefully this is something we can all forget, like Chris Hesitancy and he is getting older so maybe we have to kind of lost.
Speaker 2 [00:21:45] His helped us best wheels yeah ask which one of us is the older one of the two though.
Speaker 1 [00:21:50] I didn’t forget his name. I forgot my name before but not his right. So just make sure you tune in to this show. We produce it every week. There’s a couple of weeks where we’ve kind of missed. It’s just due to scheduling, honestly, because we’re all so busy and it’s kind of tough to always gather us together. So sometimes we’ll miss, but for the most part we do.
Speaker 2 [00:22:09] Between the three of us, we’ve all got kids in different school districts.
Speaker 1 [00:22:12] Oh, right. Yeah, it’s it’s been kind of nuts.
Speaker 2 [00:22:14] It has been a little.
Speaker 1 [00:22:15] Crazy over the summer. Even gets a little bit more tricky because we’re all we’re on quite a bit. But anyway, we do try to produce this every week. We have another podcast formerly known as Burgers and Bourbon. We’re not sure what that name is going to, one that was struggling and still struggling to come up with the name. But anyway, we’re getting ready to record two of those, so we produce those every Friday and then make sure you tune in every Saturday morning at 1030 on our ABC affiliate Jazz for our TV show. It’s called The Money Puzzle. And if you could share that information out to your friends and family, we’re. Greatly appreciate it. And I guess I’ll ask Santos off because he’s much better at than we are.
Speaker 2 [00:22:50] Thank you.
Speaker 3 [00:22:51] Oh, my.
Speaker 2 [00:22:52] Yea, yea, yea.
Speaker 1 [00:22:54] Yea, yea.
Speaker 3 [00:22:55] I forgot my.
Speaker 2 [00:22:56] Name. I am never going to live this down.
Speaker 3 [00:22:57] No, no. Yeah. Thanks for watching. If you’re watching on YouTube, make sure you click that red subscribe button. You know, watch its on there. Share with share our content with any of your friends or family that you think might benefit from hearing anything that we had to talk about. If you yourself are wondering about whether or not your plan is in place or good enough and in, you know, if your probability of success is going to be high enough to be successful in retirement, give us a call and we can go through that entire process with you. We’ll walk you through it from A to Z. So you really how easy it is to go through the process and go through whether or not you’re properly prepared for the inevitability of recession, whether we’re in one now, where we’re going to be in one over the next decade. I mean, we can go through and make sure that you’re properly prepared. Thanks.
Speaker 1 [00:23:43] All right. Have a good week.
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