Money Puzzle Podcast: 2023 Market Predictions

With the New Year upon us, this week on The Money Puzzle Podcast we had a little fun and talked about some of the predictions we expect to see in 2023.

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Speaker 1 [00:00:05] All right. Welcome to the money puzzle. I am Brian Ramsey. And in front, there’s Eric Douglas. And back here is Cris Vaughn. And as always, we’re going to talk about kind of markets. But this is a new year. So it is January of 2023. The first one, we took a little bit of a hiatus there in December, scheduling conflicts, people taking vacations, things like that. So we didn’t we didn’t quite keep these on a regular basis.

Speaker 2 [00:00:29] Like, doesn’t everybody take a hiatus? I mean, we were coming into the office the week between Christmas and New Year’s, and it’s impossible to get anything done because nobody’s working.

Speaker 3 [00:00:37] You know, the running joke is in between Christmas and New Year’s. You don’t even know what day of the week we’re using.

Speaker 1 [00:00:41] Come in here. No, no. I actually saw you.

Speaker 3 [00:00:44] When I came in and picked up a yes, but I was. I was just vacationing at home.

Speaker 1 [00:00:49] Yeah. Yeah. All right, so here’s what we thought we would do today, and that is sort of give an outlook for 20, 23, maybe a few discussions on what happened in 2022, but really going to focus on 2023 predictions that we have, maybe predictions that other folks have that we watch. And so we’re kind of getting their thoughts and we thought we would share them. So I’m really going to focus on these two guys today and let them sort of give their input on where we’re going to be. So let’s start off with what do we think the S&P, S&P 500 is?

Speaker 3 [00:01:22] Do we want to you want to talk about what what we think it’s going to be this coming? What do you or what people thought it was going to be?

Speaker 1 [00:01:28] You can do it the way you want, but we obviously know what happened last year. Down 19%. Yeah, right. So ugly year, although it would have been a lot uglier had we not had November, December, because. November, December. Pretty good. Pretty good months. Yeah. But talk about however you want to talk about it, but sort of give your outlook on what you think is going to happen in the markets next year.

Speaker 2 [00:01:48] Well, I think you probably want to preface it first, too, by saying we’re doing this in fun, right? Because nobody knows anything is going to happen. And I think the whole impetus for doing this was because looking back at some of the predictions for 2022, made at the beginning of the year by the largest investment firms on Wall Street were demonstrably wrong or not even close, horribly wrong. And so I wrote down some of those numbers because Goldman predicted the S&P to finish the year at about 5100, Wells Fargo 5200, Chase about 5050. Oppenheimer actually went 5300. The S&P finished about 3839. So well, way, way, way below what expectations.

Speaker 3 [00:02:27] And it started we were talking about this before we we started recording. We couldn’t remember what the starting number was, but it was around 4041.

Speaker 2 [00:02:36] It was it was over 4000. I wouldn’t say it’s around 4200 maybe something like that.

Speaker 3 [00:02:40] Yeah, that sounds about right.

Speaker 2 [00:02:41] But down it finished down 18.9 I think was.

Speaker 3 [00:02:45] All four of those that you mentioned were up big. Those were significant advances and we had a significant you know, back to it. I found another article in the New York Times that said that the average Wall Street firm at this time last year predicted that the S&P would be at 4825. So that’s lower than the those monsters that you got, all of whom are very respected, you know, investment firms. But I think that leads to the point that you were making, Eric, is nobody has any real idea what’s actually going to happen.

Speaker 2 [00:03:17] Yeah, well, it’s interesting, too, because, you know, a year ago, all of these major investment firms were super bullish. Yeah. And thinking that we were going to have just another great growth year continue, you know, what had happened the previous three years and their predictions for 2023 are all basically flat. So Goldman’s predicting a flat year. Wells Fargo is predicting a finish of the S&P 500 between 30 804,000, which is basically flat. CHACE is predicting 4200, which is up a little bit, actually up quite a bit. So back to that. Was that pretty? Yeah, that was actually up quite a bit. So we’re probably predicting about 15, 20% return there for Chase. But yeah, I mean, it just goes to show you no one has anything, no one really has any idea. And what’s funny is that all of these predictions basically fall in line with one another. There are very few Wall Street firms or very few big time investors that really want to step out on a ledge by themselves and make any kind of a bold prediction. So that’s that that’s another thing that I found interesting as you start the new Year, reading all these predictions for the year and what people got right and what people got wrong and everyone guesses the same thing, I just find it. I just find it interesting.

Speaker 3 [00:04:24] I found another one while we were doing some research beforehand, and this was this was done at the end of February. Well, we already knew at the end of February of 2022 that this was not going to be a good note, this was going to be rough. And this particular individual, I won’t mention names, predicted a full market meltdown, like to the point of dysfunction by the end of June. Okay, So the first half of this year was not fun, No question about how bad the market’s still there. Right. It’s and that’s the I get frustrated when I hear the doom and gloom or the whole thing is just going to end. We’ve heard that one before and it’s.

Speaker 2 [00:05:02] Yeah, yeah. You watch too much media.

Speaker 3 [00:05:05] Still it’s still there. And, you know, that’s where people get upset. And you you know, you hear advisers talking about people are saying, I’ve lost so much money. If you didn’t sell, you haven’t lost anything. You just have to ride these kind of things out. You have to understand that when you’re looking for that soothsayer, that’s going to tell you this is what’s going to happen this year. At best. It’s an educated guess.

Speaker 1 [00:05:28] Yeah, here’s the here’s the one thing I always question about these predictions, and you get them at the first year because everybody sort of given their outlook, hey, here’s what happened last year, but here’s really what we think is going to happen in the coming year. But you get different snippets about the market during the year. So as an example, I always go back and and I think I post this on LinkedIn. So if you follow if you if you follow me on LinkedIn, go back and look, I think just a couple of years ago where Jamie Dimon came out and said or somebody came out and said, we’re going to you know, market’s going to be in recession, you know, a lot. And I’m like, why would he come out and say it then? Right? We weren’t in a recession. We were actually technically out of a recession at that point. The fourth quarter. We’ll get those numbers coming up in about three weeks. But, you know, the third quarter was better than expected. So why would he come out in the middle of a quarter and say there’s going to be a recession? Well, it ultimately comes back to you have to go back and look and see what their holdings are and why, Why are they coming out and making certain predictions. It’s all these hedge fund guys you see on CNBC when they make a prediction, you really would want to go back and see what their holdings aren’t. That the reason why hedge fund guys can say that is because they don’t have to disclose where their holdings are. So they come out and say the world’s coming to an end, recession or recession recession. But if you go back and look out, their portfolio is loaded with put options.

Speaker 2 [00:06:49] They’re sure they’re short and something. Oh, yeah.

Speaker 1 [00:06:51] And it’s like they’re all, you know, anyway, So I say that because you get some predictions. You guys are talking about people being bullish or people being negative. Take that with a grain of salt. Yep. Right. Take it because there’s probably portfolio holdings that they are counting on to go one direction or another and that’s why they give those predictions. Right. Well.

Speaker 2 [00:07:13] I was going to say, yeah, it’s just going back to predictions. What do we think is going to happen this year? And I don’t know if anyone was smart, I’ll throw my hat in the ring. Looking forward for the next year, I think we’re going to have I don’t know if it’s going to be a flat. I think probably by the end of the year. It wouldn’t surprise me if we’re up maybe five, 6% as a whole. But I think it’s going to be pretty choppy throughout the year.

Speaker 3 [00:07:32] You and I were at the same lunch and we were talking about his name popped out of my head. The big economist with First Trust.

Speaker 2 [00:07:40] Brian Brian was.

Speaker 3 [00:07:41] On Wesbury, Thank you. And we were talking to a guy that actually, you know, knows Brian, and the prediction that Brian had made for this upcoming year was, to your point, very choppy. It will probably be up, but it will be a minimal amount. But it’s it’s going to be a little bit of a rollercoaster ride to get there and you’re not necessarily going to feel good. That was that was his prediction and he’s been pretty accurate when you look at him. Big picture. So I’m going to kind of go along with what Eric was saying.

Speaker 2 [00:08:08] I think ultimately because a lot of this and I hate to say it because no one likes the fact that governments and markets are so intertwined now. But that’s kind of the reality that we live in at this point. And a lot of this is going to be dictated by Fed policy. And I know that’s one of our agenda items here on the on the sheet there. But, you know, we never know the Fed to come in and start chopping rates and they start lowering rates all of a sudden overnight, guess what’s going to the market that’s going to dictate what the market does if they continue to raise rates at the pace that they’ve been doing it, I don’t think that they will. I think they finally hit maybe not a ceiling, but I think we’re getting pretty close to a ceiling as far as rates are concerned then. Yeah, I mean, there’s only so far the market can go up if we continue to raise rates. So I think we’re trying to find a little bit of a middle ground right now. And that’s why I think at least through especially through the first half of the year, I think we’re going to be pretty choppy because we’re still trying to find out, okay, are we in a recession or are we not? What’s the Fed going to do or are they going to raise rates or are they going to hold them? And there’s still a lot of unanswered questions. And I think we’ll have a lot more clarity around summertime.

Speaker 1 [00:09:11] Yeah, I’m ago I think we’re going to be somewhere in the high single digits. And I think the majority of that performance will come at the end of the year, which will lead us to the recession Talk. Yeah, because that’s the next that’s sort of one of the talking points that happened at the end of last year was are we going to be in a recession next year? A lot of people have been predicting it. We’ve had lots of conversation with clients about what our thought, our thoughts around whether we’re going to be in a recession. Matter of fact, last night we were at lacrosse practice and a guy said, oh, we got to hunker down next year and it’s going to drag on spending. We’re not going to go out to dinner and we’re going to save money. And I’m like, For what? For what? Why would you? Well, for what? What gives you the what? What makes you think that? Well, you know, I read and I watch and I go, that’s your broad, that’s your problem. And and he was I was joking with him. But then again, I really. Wasn’t. And we even tell clients, be careful where you get your information, because depending on what what information you consume, we’ll predict whether you think we’re going to have an awesome year like this 5500 on the S&P or whatever it is, or we’re going to be, you know, 20, 2500 on the S&P. Depends on who you talk to. I personally feel like next year we’re going to be in a recession. I do think fourth quarter is going to be in line with where we were in third quarter, maybe be slightly higher. I think it’s going to be that way because.

Speaker 3 [00:10:34] Of 2022.

Speaker 1 [00:10:35] Correct, Fourth quarter. 2020? Yeah, because if you went out and all did in shopping out parking lots were packed and they weren’t, it was jam packed. So I think I think the consumer came out of pocket, which is good. That’s a good day. But I think going into the first quarter, I think that will be like nine. We spend everything in fourth quarter. We’re going to you know, we’re going to slow down our spending or consuming a little bit. So I think we’re going to see what we saw last year. First quarter was down a little bit, second quarter down a little bit. So technically we’ll be in a recession, but I don’t think we’re going to be in this wholesale mass layoffs. And, you know, I don’t think we’re going to see any of that.

Speaker 2 [00:11:11] Well, I think to piggyback on that. So you’re talking about going into a recession next year, which I think we probably will as well. Here’s the reality. The market’s down almost 20% in 2022 in just just a hair shy of 20%. The economy was not that bad. The market is typically a leading indicator. So usually I think what’s going to be interesting is we’re going to get the official recession news, maybe first, second quarter. Who knows? I don’t know. But I think it’s probably coming. But it’s going to be interesting to see how the market reacts to that, because I think a lot of that’s already been priced in. I think so much of this year with the rising interest rates and the fear of a recession has driven markets lower, that when we finally get into the recession and we’ve talked about this kind of throughout the year that they’re trying to put us into a recession, that once it finally happens, once we finally get that bad news and like, oh, okay, we’re here, we can start moving on. And I think I almost would expect that once that happens, we’re going to see a rebound in the markets, which will be a weird dichotomy, of course, but that’s how these things work.

Speaker 1 [00:12:12] So we’re sort of predicting that we are going to be we will be in a recession, but just may not be this awful. You know, where unemployment, awful recession, where unemployment goes up, you know, 10%. I don’t see us getting there.

Speaker 2 [00:12:28] Well, that’s going to be the other thing to watch, too, because employment is going to go up. I think I don’t think it’s going to go up horribly. But like Amazon just announced, this is timely. Amazon just announced like yesterday, I think seven 17,000 layoffs or some really big number. But they actually referred to Twitter when Elon Musk came in about that is like we got 75% of the workforce and basically the products the same. Amazon’s doing the same thing, but they they’re predicting about $3.6 billion worth of retained earnings, saved earnings because they’re just cutting their workforce. So so it’s going to be interesting because you’re going to see workforces cut because there’s probably excess headcount at a lot of these major firms, but you’re going to see earnings go up. So when earnings go up, that has a positive effect on on the market. So it’s going to be once again, you’re going to see bad news over here, but that bad news could actually translate into good news in the market perspective.

Speaker 1 [00:13:21] Yeah, it is. Okay. Inflation, what do we think about what do we think inflation is going to hit? What do we think it’s going to do in 2023 compared to 22 or compared to.

Speaker 3 [00:13:34] How you think it’s going to be similar? To be really honest with you, it takes a couple of years of inflation to catch up to the values that we had. Everything was overinflated. Now we’ve got a catch up. We had, what, 12 consecutive years of exceedingly low inflation rates. There’s some pain to catch that up two to average. So I don’t think it’ll be quite as high as it was in 2022, but I think it’s still going to be high. I think it’s still going to be painful, and I think that’s going to have a a big impact on on, you know, we’re going to talk about Fed policy, stuff like that that is going to have a big impact this year.

Speaker 2 [00:14:09] Go ahead.

Speaker 1 [00:14:09] I’m sorry.

Speaker 2 [00:14:10] No, I think I think inflation has peaked, whatever that means. But I think the rate at which it increases has stopped.

Speaker 3 [00:14:18] Yes, I agree.

Speaker 2 [00:14:19] I think I think it’s going to stay flat. I don’t think people can expect to go to the groceries and go to the grocery store and start paying less. That’s not going to happen. I don’t think we’re going to have any kind of real serious deflation. I think it’s going to stay largely flat probably throughout the rest of the year. I think a lot of that is going to be based on Fed policy, too, of course. But I think we’ve seen, I think for months now in a row where inflation is very, very slightly coming down. And when I say it’s coming down, I mean it’s coming down. But, you know, as compared to point to point three percentage points. Right. So but once again, inflation is still a very much a problem because prices have increased so much. When I say it’s peaked, I think the rate of increases I think is going to stop going up further. But it’s not going to come down. No, that’s. That’s kind of my prediction for the year.

Speaker 1 [00:15:06] Well, so you when you talk about inflation and again, I posted something on LinkedIn, so if you don’t follow me on LinkedIn, just go back and check. I think I may put a post on Facebook as well. But when you look at inflation, you can look at it from a variety of perspectives. You could say, Oh, well, when I was going to Kroger two years or say prior to 2020, you know, I could fill up my basket and 120 bucks. Now it’s 170 and I’m not quite filling basket up with the same stuff. That’s that’s real inflation. Oh, yeah. That means you’re paying a lot more If you look at these federal numbers and I’ll say, you know, numbers that are posted, CPI numbers, whatever, when they say that inflation is coming down, it’s technically not. It’s not. Yeah. Because they’re doing year over year. Right. So even know the number they’ll say, oh inflation came down. Well no technically it didn’t because if you go back and look at the year over year numbers, inflation was going up last year. So even though the so your denominator, if you will. So last year numbers are going up. So if you do a year over year, you know I came down, you know, down to 7.1. No, it technically didn’t come down at all.

Speaker 3 [00:16:13] Exactly.

Speaker 1 [00:16:14] Because the denominator is going up, if that makes sense. So you’re going to have to keep all this in perspective.

Speaker 2 [00:16:19] The rate of increase, it’s kind of like baseline budgeting. So, you know, when you whenever you give a department a certain budget for the year and then they increase the budget for the next year, you know, then they maybe cut let’s say that you raise the budget 5% and then from that they don’t spend it all. They say, well, we cut spending 2%. Well, no, actually, you raised it 3%. Yeah, because technically it was five. You had a 2% cut from the 5% increase. It’s kind of the same idea with it is inflation. Yeah. So the rate of increase is slowing down. It’s still very, very high.

Speaker 1 [00:16:50] Yeah. And the same thing that we all have to keep in perspective and I’ve had this conversation with clients over the past year, when you’re talking about inflation, that means that the price of a good services is getting higher, get more expensive to buy the same good or service or consume whatever you’re consuming. Right. It’s no different when you’re looking at what happened over the last couple of years. Yes, I think I think to your point, we really had no inflation for a long time. They all said we got whacked at one point. But income has also steadily gone up because the years I remember years ago, people would say, oh, you make $100,000 a year. That’s a big job. That’s a huge deal. Yeah. And now.

Speaker 3 [00:17:32] So you’re a millionaire.

Speaker 1 [00:17:33] Then, right? Right, right. Yeah. But even now, the majority of people that come in here pretty much make 100 grand a year. So but you have to also keep in perspective. If you go back and look at history, if let’s all use my dad’s example, very dad’s 81 years old in 60 something, 59, 60, whatever, his very first job, 4300 bucks. So what he made for the year for. Yes, we may. Yes. As I was saying, your salary, 4300 bucks. This first house cost 60 $200. Anybody have a Sears magazine? So it’s it’s all relative right now. You flash forward, he was an accountant. So an accountant coming out first year is going to make 100 grand a year at a big firm, if not more. But the first house, did they go buy a three bedroom, two bath house is going to be $400,000. It’s no different than when my kids are my age or my kids or my dad’s age. You know, when they’re 80, you know, and starting salary is going to be two or $300,000. And the three bedroom, two bath house is going to be eight, eight, $900,000. So it’s all relative, right? It’s no it that’s what we get to keep all this in perspective. And the inflation thing just gets blown way out of proportion. I think people use it to, uh, they use it to whatever talking points they have. They can use it as a as something. It’s good or something. It’s bad. It depends on what kind of what they’re trying to push.

Speaker 2 [00:18:59] Hyperinflation is bad for sure, but regular run of the mill inflation is actually healthy for the economy. Yeah, sure.

Speaker 1 [00:19:05] Well, and if they didn’t, if there was no if there was no inflation, guess who’s not getting a raise? Yeah, right. People are not getting raises. So anyway, enough on recession. I kind of beat that one up a little bit. I’m sorry. Inflation. Now let’s talk about Fed Fed policy.

Speaker 3 [00:19:21] Yeah.

Speaker 1 [00:19:21] Because that’s kind of a hot button, right? I mean, it’s so let’s sort of give you a prediction on where do you think the Fed what is this going to do this?

Speaker 3 [00:19:30] I think that this time a year from now, the rates will be higher than what they are now. I think they’re going to continue to increase, but they’re going to slow the rate at which they’re increasing them. And they did suggest that that’s what they were going to do at the the meaning they did up in Jackson Hole. So I think they’re going to stick to that. You’re probably looking at three or four raises this year, just not in as much amounts.

Speaker 1 [00:19:51] Well, the market’s already priced in 50 basis points in February, so they’re at least going to get that well in certain.

Speaker 3 [00:19:57] Yeah, it certainly appears that.

Speaker 2 [00:19:59] Yes, that’s the expected raise. Yeah. But I think at beyond that, I think they’re going to have to. They absolutely. How to slow down the rate of increase. They’ve gone they’ve gone too high.

Speaker 3 [00:20:07] Or too.

Speaker 2 [00:20:08] Fast. Too fast. Because what’s also going to be interesting is when the housing numbers really start coming out because because they raise rates so quickly, the economy hasn’t really absorbed those interest rate hikes yet. It takes a while. The economy’s not something that turns on a dime. Right. It takes a while to absorb those things. And so you have interest rates with the housing markets. Real easy to use, right? Because we can look at mortgage rates that have gone from two and a half percent to 7% on a 30 year mortgage. The number of people that are going to be moving now has dropped dramatically. I know plenty of realtors and they’ve all told me there’s a there’s a real decrease in activity on the housing front. Now, some will tell you some will be more honest than others. Right. That’s just kind of the nature of their business, right? Yeah, It’s still a great time to buy a house. I get it. But it’s not.

Speaker 3 [00:20:59] I heard that argument this week.

Speaker 2 [00:21:01] Yeah, maybe if you’re a cash buyer, actually, and you can buy something on the cheap. But the reality is a lot of that stuff hasn’t been absorbed in the housing market. And we’re going to see that with building because there’s a there’s a very low supply of housing inventory right now, but people can’t move because they can’t afford to move. So we’re going to see a drop in housing, but we’re going to see a correction in the housing market. It’s gotten probably a little just way too wild. It’s not maybe going to affect Louisville as much as it will affect other larger cities, because, you know, we didn’t have the totally out of control market like some of these other places did. But, you know, go down to Florida, New York, California. Right. We’re going to have a serious correction in the housing market nationally. And so I think, once again, this is all a result of the rise in interest rates. And so they’re going to have to slow down the rate of increase. They’re going to have to because it went too too high, too fast. So I think probably by the time you get to spring or summer, if if it’s not a pause, it’s going to be a another reduction in the increase.

Speaker 1 [00:21:58] Yeah. So I’ll take a little bit different spin on this. I think I think people infused on what the role of the Federal Reserve really is not going to go down that path because that’s a whole.

Speaker 3 [00:22:11] That’s a long.

Speaker 1 [00:22:12] That’s a super conversation. But one of the one of the one of the roles of the Federal Reserve is to control the inflation or, I’m sorry, recession. Right? That’s what they’re that’s one of the things that they that they try to offset is a recession. I’ll give you a quick example. 2020, we were headed to a recession, a hard recession, if not probably a depression by definition would be my guess.

Speaker 2 [00:22:38] Everything that happened this past year should have happened in 2020, basically, if.

Speaker 1 [00:22:41] Not a lot.

Speaker 2 [00:22:42] Worse. Exactly.

Speaker 1 [00:22:43] Exactly. Yeah. But the Federal Reserve did what they saw to do. They stepped in and they created lots of money and said, here’s our policy. We’re going to take it to zero. I mean, banks go out and lend money like crazy in banks. Did they lend money like crazy because they didn’t have to pay this overnight lending rate, which is the Fed funds rate. And so we just created this. There’s plenty of cash flow out in the market and everybody kind of offset a recession. It’s the same way they they can use their policy to reduce inflation or help control inflation. Now, how do they do that again for another conversation? But essentially, they they make it tougher to borrow money. Right. And so there’s less money out and therefore, people don’t have money in their pockets. And we start to not buy as much. And then you, you know, whatever. So I think what the Federal Reserve is doing right now is they are trying their best. They nothing they’ve done so far has worked. So they’ve increased their their rate over the last couple of years. Right. They’ve been doing over the last couple of years or last year.

Speaker 3 [00:23:47] Last year.

Speaker 1 [00:23:47] But yeah, last year they’re hoping that by doing that all the all the spenders would go out and we go, Oh, wait a minute, I’m going to spend as much more, you know, keep my finances in order. What would we do? We would now spend anyway? Mm hmm. Right now, there’s a lot of argument on why we’re doing that, but we’re just. We did anyway. We just went and spent money. And so the Federal Reserve has to do something to get inflation in control. That’s one of their roles, is to maintain inflation. So I really do believe the Federal Reserve is going to be super aggressive. I think they’re still going to be aggressive. I think we’re probably going to get 50 in February. I think we’re going to get another 50 in the first week of April, I believe is their next meeting first second week of April. But I think they’re going to I think they’re going to do another 50. I think they’re going to get a series of two or three that are in the fifties. The reason I say that is because they they want this economy to go into a recession and now the recession we had last year, they want it to be a full blown, you know, lots of layoffs, that type of recession. The reason why is because at that point, when the news starts to get around, what are we all going to start doing? We didn’t get the news last year was like going to recession, but it’s no big deal. No big deal. You know, we’re an election cycle, so no big deal.

Speaker 2 [00:25:03] Still spending money.

Speaker 1 [00:25:04] And so we all went out to them and they’re like, oh, we’re in a session. Remember, they didn’t really call it a recession last year. They’re using all these different terminology.

Speaker 2 [00:25:11] And it was an election year.

Speaker 1 [00:25:12] Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So I think the Federal Reserve is trying to let’s say let’s get let’s get a recession that’s going to smacks of evil in the face and therefore we’re all going to stop spending. And so therefore, inventories can start to build. That’s been the problem, right? So when inventories start to build, what do suppliers have to do? They have to drop their prices, right, to get their inventories are shrinking. And so I think I think the Federal Reserve is is not going to play nice. I think they’re going to still be fairly aggressive. I think their language could be softer that, oh, we may be a little bit more accommodative, but I don’t think they’re going to be. But I do. I do really I do believe they’re going to be a little bit more aggressive, probably till midyear. And then towards the end of the year, I think they’re going to start lowering because I think we’re going to be kicked in the pants. But again, recession was like we’re going to be in a recession first two, first two quarters. But then I think third quarter or fourth quarter are going to be really good.

Speaker 3 [00:26:08] And just to clarify, you know, when you talk about we’re going to get beat up by the Fed, that’s a good thing, because that’s how you get long term. That’s how you get the inflation under control, right?

Speaker 1 [00:26:20] Well, yeah, Yeah. I mean.

Speaker 3 [00:26:21] That’s the end game is to get that inflation rate back down to what they said they wanted 2.4 or something like that.

Speaker 1 [00:26:27] Yeah, but again, I hear you and I understand. But again, the denominator number has to come into play, too. And so over the course of the next six months, it will by default come down because the numbers start to start to tell off.

Speaker 2 [00:26:43] Well, because now we’re looking at when you look at year over year inflation, we’re looking at last January versus today, what we the inflation was already on the rise a year ago. So by the time we get to summer when inflation was at its peak last year, the inflation numbers are going to be coming down. Maybe they’re not going to be down quite as much. I don’t know if they’ll be down quite as much as two and a half percent, but the numbers will be substantially better. But once again, inflation is still going to be very high. The rate of increase is decreasing. Right. So that’s that’s the kind of the take. Yeah, exactly. But yeah, so you’re probably a little more aggressive on Fed policy. I’m probably less aggressive, obviously. Different, different minds. You’re right. You know, we can both come to reasonable conclusions different ways. But that’s what’s interesting. We don’t know at the end of day, but I don’t know.

Speaker 3 [00:27:27] If you have a clue. That was the whole point of this discussion.

Speaker 1 [00:27:30] Yeah. No. Yeah, for.

Speaker 2 [00:27:31] Sure. And we’ll come back here a year from now. Yeah. How? Right where we were when we all sat down and made these stupid predictions.

Speaker 1 [00:27:37] And then maybe we’ll do one midyear or something where we will see where we are mid-year. But either way, look, at the end of the day, no one knows. And that’s kind of why we’re in this business. No one knows, and that’s why we have when we create portfolios, it’s all about risk on risk off assets and making sure we have enough money to accommodate your lifestyle. You know, for 3 to 15 years, depending on, you know, what we’re trying to accomplish. So. So clients that come in, you know, that we have this set up, does it really matter what happens next year because we have the cash sitting aside to cover all their other lifestyle needs, and that’s what we do with everybody. So that’s it for 2023 prediction, I believe. Right. No other comments or stories or anything? Nope. Okay. All right. So that’s it for this podcast. I believe next podcast is about Secure Act 2.02.0 20.2 22.23212.0. And it was something like I’m looking over here to something like that. To add it to that up. Anyway, make sure you tune in that there’s some significant changes.

Speaker 3 [00:28:41] Yes, there.

Speaker 1 [00:28:41] Are. Especially for those folks that are, you know, in their early seventies. There’s a couple of significant changes for you guys. So make sure you tune in for next week. And sorry if you do follow us. We we were a little bit late on content the month of December and us just scheduling and that kind of thing. We took some time off to be a family, so which is important to us. So anyway, we’re back at it hard now and we’ll make sure we get content every week. But that’s it for this Week in Politics out on the software this week.

Speaker 2 [00:29:09] Thanks for watching and thanks for listening. If you’re watching on YouTube, make sure you hit the subscribe button. Feel free to share our content with anybody that you think might benefit from anything. Any of our ramblings that we might know might be coming out of our mouth at any given time. So appreciate it and see you next time.